Description

This analysis provides a forecast of BTC prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2024-11-03 00:00:00+00:00 61583.275955 65164.233353 68749.126694 72604.449346 76630.535017 80708.087458 85147.120954
2024-11-10 00:00:00+00:00 56188.255574 61680.638101 67336.873307 73588.259537 80294.758456 87264.496861 95046.347869
2024-11-17 00:00:00+00:00 52052.145277 58827.324722 65961.684510 74015.899383 82836.983152 92185.492673 102823.124568
2024-11-24 00:00:00+00:00 48615.314028 56315.000560 64576.439575 74069.760316 84646.167079 96036.032133 109197.585991
2024-12-01 00:00:00+00:00 45993.102969 54442.923776 63658.992951 74413.010250 86571.069572 99844.272420 115383.201144
2024-12-08 00:00:00+00:00 43597.478675 52637.855783 62646.135824 74487.501354 88052.199538 103042.268923 120794.603551
2024-12-15 00:00:00+00:00 42124.244415 51768.462199 62588.273423 75548.052826 90567.042158 107341.934470 127408.443143
2024-12-22 00:00:00+00:00 40133.669807 50181.340934 61600.393755 75441.047559 91660.240541 109960.653197 132061.646646
2024-12-29 00:00:00+00:00 39067.039559 49611.263771 61734.051331 76583.517815 94156.999829 114163.680925 138527.976457
2025-01-05 00:00:00+00:00 37885.438411 48837.004750 61569.123347 77323.351098 96143.240013 117751.494601 144274.650878
2025-01-12 00:00:00+00:00 36417.427287 47648.093068 60849.379846 77347.432109 97237.798352 120264.927909 148747.164816
2025-01-19 00:00:00+00:00 34987.610755 46444.538584 60056.505332 77231.859290 98122.305405 122499.385321 152872.316900
2025-01-26 00:00:00+00:00 34240.054959 46067.977017 60260.693311 78328.151608 100482.525028 126522.357888 159183.698117
2025-02-02 00:00:00+00:00 33401.369508 45543.105388 60255.820561 79149.195475 102501.046462 130143.051128 165039.193056
2025-02-09 00:00:00+00:00 32417.814419 44794.749033 59939.486790 79556.380380 103993.308412 133121.474049 170127.890702
2025-02-16 00:00:00+00:00 31326.035540 43866.398084 59361.057772 79604.000416 105016.924937 135516.443808 174507.199519
2025-02-23 00:00:00+00:00 30444.302601 43176.226446 59053.656106 79965.635092 106410.871897 138353.959218 179428.991064
2025-03-02 00:00:00+00:00 29485.881571 42351.449424 58544.211867 80044.135255 107430.114922 140719.892012 183772.789708
2025-03-09 00:00:00+00:00 29038.740597 42183.071766 58862.635399 81167.242136 109759.594805 144709.734016 190137.372694
2025-03-16 00:00:00+00:00 28086.228832 41308.604877 58238.256943 81053.908456 110504.396812 146721.176910 194051.183943
2025-03-23 00:00:00+00:00 27735.846539 41230.545454 58642.175745 82263.667599 112934.429010 150845.336971 200617.317693
2025-03-30 00:00:00+00:00 27229.124324 40921.392389 58727.116945 83046.966707 114813.664824 154282.952927 206341.482084
2025-04-06 00:00:00+00:00 26442.753385 40203.905996 58248.960453 83072.460932 115701.903486 156464.349196 210490.384107